July 16, 2019 | From Forbes Magazine
Donald Trump’s presidency has been so widely derided in the national media that a casual observer might easily conclude his prospects for reelection are dim. However, that is not what the odds makers are saying. They give Trump a solid edge over any Democratic candidate in 2020.
The odds makers are right. Trump will probably be reelected if he chooses to run. What follows is an explanation of why the odds favor Trump, and what eight years of his leadership would mean for global security. Let’s start with the factors favoring a second term.
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First of all, candidates who get elected to the presidency once tend to get reelected if they run. . . .
Second, Trump has presided over the strongest economy in living memory. . . .
Third, the nation is at peace. Trump has avoided involvement in new overseas adventures, and is pressing to scale back what is left of the operations he inherited from his predecessor. . . .
Fourth, Democrats are busy reminding voters in the middle of the political spectrum why they voted for Trump in 2016. Ever since the Democrats drifted away from their blue-collar base in the 1970s, winning the party’s presidential nomination has required appeals to the Left. . . .
Fifth, polls showing weak approval of the president’s performance have lulled Democrats into thinking his defeat is nearly inevitable in 2020. But Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan were both unpopular during their first terms, and then went on to score landslide victories against opponents who made the incumbent look good. . . .
Sixth, people have gotten used to Trump. He doesn’t seem as outrageous as he once did. His critics will fret that this amounts to “normalizing deviance,” but what it really shows is that two years in the nation’s top job have taken the edge off of Trump’s confrontational personality. . . . (Excerpt from Forbes Magazine, commentary by Loren Thompson)
What do you think? Is it likely Pres. Trump will be re-elected? Will his tweets be his downfall? Leave a comment.